Geomagnetic storm forecast - 15^th August 2024

What Has Happened?

 

We are expecting an increase in geomagnetic activity early this weekend due to enhanced solar activity.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) left the Sun early on 14^th August 2024 and was associated with an X1 class solar flare originating near the center of the solar disk.

The CME is expected to arrive around noon on 17^th August and will likely lead to increased geomagnetic activity, with prolonged STORM periods anticipated.

The combined effects of a high-speed stream from a recurrent coronal hole and the arrival of the CME further increase the chances of enhanced geomagnetic activity.

Assuming clear, dark skies, there is an increased chance of seeing the aurora during the upcoming weekend (16^th-18^th Aug) with best opportunity being on the night of 17^th August. Those in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland have the best chance if the weather is favourable.

 

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Glossary

BGS

The British Geological Survey is a geoscience research centre that is part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and affiliated to the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).

CME or Coronal Mass Ejection

The eruption of a portion of the outer atmosphere of the Sun into space, caused by rapid changes in its magnetic field. Often occurs along with a solar flare.

Coronal Hole

A region in the Sun’s outer atmosphere (corona) where hot material can flow unrestrained by its magnetic fields out into space.

Solar Flare

Energy released by the explosive reorganisation of magnetic fields within the Sun's atmosphere.